Hey Puzzle Bomb Family,
We love being transparent with you all on this journey, so this week is going to be a peek behind the business end of Puzzle Bomb, specifically an update on puzzle subscriptions.
If you're newer to Puzzle Bomb, if you want to start earlier in the journey, you can also check out these previous blog posts from back when we first launched our subscriptions:
An Early Look at Our Upcoming Puzzle Subscription/Club!
The Journey of Launching a Subscription System
An Overview of the First Five Months
When we launched subscriptions in February, we of course started at 0 subscribers. A bit daunting, as switching business models is a risk with no guarantees! Here's a chart of what has happened since then:
Within one day of subscriptions going live, we had surged to 65 subscribers on the strength of our existing customer base. I honestly didn't know at the time if that was good or bad, as 65 monthly subscribers was a longshot from where were needed to be.
However, unlike our previous crowdfunding model, which is a strategy that relies on heavy, short bursts of buying activity, subscriptions have proven to be a slow, steady, snowball of predictable monthly growth. It's really the old story of the tortoise and the hare. The hare looks impressive in short bursts, while the turtle is a bit boring to watch. However, that hare (crowdfunding) was wildly unpredictable, whereas this tortoise (subscriptions) is steady and reliable. This is incredibly valuable to us as a family now that Puzzle Bomb is our sole source of income!
Side Note: Not shown on the chart are about 30 international "subscribers", who I take care of outside of this system, as the system only works for US folks.
A Funny, Recent Challenge
We rely pretty heavily on Facebook and Instagram to bring in new customers, and it's done a great job. Over the past week or so, we've run into a pretty wild situation.
Up until recently, we'd see a net gain of about 15 subscribers per week. Near the end of June, we started seeing off-the-charts new gains of 20, 30, or even 40 new subscribers per day. However, two things were odd about these buyers:
- We utilize post-purchase upsells on Puzzle Bomb, and about 40% of all orders take advantage of them. In this buyer group, it was about 2%.
- Many of them were cancelling their subscription within a week.
Furthermore, when the subscriptions started in June went to process for July, a hugely unusual percentage of cards failed payment due to insufficient credit available, suggesting they aren't in a financial position to be a subscriber.
Facebook was looking to optimize purchases, and had suddenly keyed in on a crowd of folks who really just wanted to take advantage of our "first puzzle is $1" deal, with no intent to continue. I don't fault these folks for taking advantage, as I made it possible, but it was crazy to see, once it discovered a trend, just how good Facebook was at identifying folks who will buy anything for $1!
You can see the recent snapshot in this graph, showing a steep increase in late June, followed by a big drop:
Of course, this couldn't continue, as $1 sales lose us money if folks don't continue with the subscription, so we recently made the only change we've made so far to our subscription pricing, increasing the first puzzle to $10 rather than $1. Still a wildly good deal, but hopefully it will cut down on the folks just wanting something for free. Running a business is a long process of calculated risks, and there's always adjustments along the way. Live and learn!
New Challenges
Our print run had always been 500 units of each puzzle. Now that we're flirting with that number in July, projecting future print runs is the new risk/challenge! We need to begin production about 5 months ahead of time, which means the December puzzles are already in production.
Do I project based on the historical average of 15/week? Do I expect higher numbers as we head into the winter months? Is it better to risk being short, or to risk having too many? These are all questions we're praying about and doing our best to wisely move forward with.
The Big Question: Has it Been Worth It?
A resounding yes! While this pivot was a big undertaking not without risk, it's been a win/win for both us and our customers. We get so much feedback from y'all about being excited for the next month's surprise, and our end, we get stability, predictability, and slow and steady growth over time. With three kiddos, that does wonders for our ability to financially plan for our family!
If you're reading this, it's likely you're one of those folks who has already subscribed. Thank you so much for being on this journey with us!
And, if you haven't subscribed yet, you're missing out on that child-like joy of getting a new surprise every month, not to mention a monthly excuse for peace and quiet as you plug away at a satisfying puzzle! We can only accept a bit under 30 new subscribers this month until we're sold out, so grab this month's piggy puzzle while you can!
Love and blessings,
Chad and the Krizan Family
6 comments
Start getting used to the increase in subscribers! Each puzzle is a work of art, from the printing precision, to the cutting precision, to the unique packaging. I mean, a puzzle box/sleeve that fits like a book on your shelf? It doesn’t get better than that.
Once subscribed, we have bought as many of the back catalog as are available – we only wish we could buy some of the earlier designs (“pre 24”). eBay is no help – it seems once you buy a Puzzle Bomb puzzle, you keep it, with very very few going up for auction.
Keep up the great work, team Krizan!
I love seeing that it’s working, Chad! Being able to consider moving up from a print run of 500 is a big deal!
I agree with having a minimum subscription before the bonus. Like three months and the fourth is free, or pay for one or more months and you get a half off coupon code for any in stock puzzle. I’ve done other subscriptions where the benefit was a reward for the people who stayed. I don’t think it’s a bad idea to print more than 500 each month because later subscribers could shop the backstock once they’re hooked. I’ve been buying every previous puzzle I can find to fill my collection. Also, consider letting people pick an in-stock puzzle or use a popular Legendary for their first month. I originally held off because I wasn’t really interested in the subscriber puzzle for that month. Maybe with Haystack, people could have chosen an easier puzzle to start if they weren’t sure.
Based on comments on Reddit and other sites, people are really interested once they see the puzzles because they’re so different. I’m guessing there will be a steady rise as more people hear about them.
Sorry people were messing with you for the $1 puzzle. I thought it was connected to actually continuing but not sure why I thought that. Just because that was the fair and honest way to get it. Anyway, just wanted to say I’m glad you ae doing well. And I really, really like the pig puzzle that just came. I’ve always had a fondness for pigs and had a very, very good friend who called himself Porko. I also contribute to a pig sanctuary currently. Not that I ever had one—a live one, nor want one. I hope all goes well with your new price and that weeds out the dilettantes. (If I’m using that word correctly.)
I respect the idea of $10 instead of $1! I thought I was going to sign up for $1 and cancel immediately. But then I saw the puzzles, and FOMO took over. The limited nature of these make them very appealing to me.
I think the haystack puzzle from June was not a great one to convince people to stay, as most of the others I see are very colorful and kid-friendly. There may be a play in how different that puzzle was on how many canceled, but I do agree it is likely a “free?!?” reaction. I also highly appreciate this transparency of business flow!! <3
I would anticipate a boost in sales for the holiday season, so it is unfortunate the production process starts 5 months in advance with how fluctuating this is currently.
I really love the new monthly subscription model. I enjoy knowing I’ll be getting a new and interesting new puzzle every month. I like this much better than waiting for the quarterly drops. Maybe you should consider a minimum sign up requirement of 3 months or something like that? Something that says people don’t just get the freebie and then jump out right away? Just a thought. Your customer service is so good and forgiving that maybe it’s biting you a bit? I wouldn’t offer the first one for free without some assurance that people will stay signed up for at least a little while… we all know you don’t get those for free and should indeed get your money back in some form, and takers are everywhere. I signed up and I’ll stay signed up and keep enjoying the super fun puzzling, and supporting your creative puzzles business. :D